Michael O’Farrell
SEVEN out of 10 people would take a Covid-19 vaccine if it was available to them, according to an Ireland Thinks poll taken yesterday for the Irish Mail on Sunday.
When asked in the poll of 1,044 respondents, 70% said Yes, with 16% saying they didn’t know what they would do and 14% saying they would not take the jab.
A source involved in planning Ireland’s vaccine One rollout estimated that we could be in line for up to 20 million vaccines if all six currently in development come to fruition.
A NPHET expert warned that a key battleground in the largest immunisation programme ever conducted by the State will be the ability to persuade enough of those who are hesitant to take the jab to ultimately vaccinate themselves and their families.
In this vein, State observers will note that these figures represent a slight slippage in the numbers who would take a vaccine from a previous Ireland Thinks poll in July – where 73% said Yes, 13% said No and 14% said they didn’t know what they would do.
Demographically speaking, support for vaccination, which is now a reality, peaks the older you are and is strongest amongst retired men.
The poll shows 71% of 18 to 34-year-old men would vaccinate; 65% of 35 to 64-year-old men would do so; while 90% of men over the age of 65 would take the jab.
In women, the progression is a little more uniform, going from 61% of 18 to 34-year-olds who would vaccinate; 68% for 35 to 64-year-olds, and 74% for women over 65.
Education level is an indicator, with only 10% of those with third-level degrees saying No to a vaccine, 15% with a Leaving Cert saying No and 24% of those having attained less than a Leaving Cert saying they wouldn’t take the vaccine.
Broken down by voter intention, big support for the vaccine can be seen in the Green Party (91%); Labour (89%) Fianna Fáil (83%); Fine Gael (81%) and Social Democrats (73%).
Even the far left Solidarity/ People Before Profit supporters show a 68% approval of the vaccine; while 64% of the more conservative Aontú voters would get vaccinated.
Most Sinn Féin voters, 55%, would vaccinate, but that is the lowest rate of all of the mainstream parties represented in the Dáil.
The question of whether, due to the unprecedented speed in which the vaccines were developed, citizens will choose to vaccinate is now a key policy imperative in the State’s Covid-19 response.
A leading behavioural scientist has warned that the State is facing a crucial battle to convince enough people to take a Covid-19 vaccine.
The ESRI’s Professor Pete Lunn said he respected and understood those who were hesitant – but he warned of the damage that politically motivated ‘anti-vaxxers’ could do.
‘I think it is important to respect the hesitant people,’ Prof. Lunn told the MoS.
‘But I don’t respect the antivaxxers. I think they peddle lies for their own purposes.’ As founder and head of the ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit, Prof. Lunn is a member of NPHET’s sub-committee on behavioural science. As such, he will play a crucial role in advising the authorities on planned information and communication plans, to be rolled out as we prepare for Covid vaccines in the coming months.
He said it was important to draw a distinction between the anti-vaxxers with their conspiracy theories and those who are vaccine-hesitant.
‘Vaccine hesitancy is not necessarily associated with a refusal to believe in science or a lack of trust in science. It’s not necessarily associated with any kind of politics or extreme views,’ said Prof. Lunn.
‘It’s much more a kind of nervousness about vaccines – often expressed by people who feel like they don’t know enough – and often expressed by people who genuinely do not know enough.’ The challenge facing the authorities now is how to convince those with genuine doubts to partake in the forthcoming campaigns.
‘There’s a real information and persuasion battle here,’ said Prof. Lunn. ‘One important question is, will the political element – the anti-vaxxers – manage to get at the hesitant people who are probably at around 25% to 30% at the moment.’ Prof. Lunn warned that this hesitant population repre-sents a key battleground in the coming months.
‘They are in play. They’re there to be fought over but that is a battle that we can win,’ he said adding that the Government’s strategy would be vital.
‘If a political fight starts where rumours are spread that the vaccines unsafe, that could cause a problem because much of the hesitancy of people is because a lot of them don’t know enough. What’s important is that our science communication is good enough and that a comfortable majority of those people end up being persuaded that this is something they should do.’ Prof. Lunn said he would be first in line for a vaccine but he said he understood the balance of risk at play in people’s minds.
‘It is possible these vaccines have long-term consequences we don’t know about yet. While the trials can cover tens of thousands of people – and they have shown almost no side-effects – it’s still possible that they will show some longer-term side-effects we’re not aware of. It’s rare – but it can happen and we have to be honest about the fact that there is a risk, even if we consider it to be worth taking.’ To address these legitimate concerns, he says careful and speedy research – currently being planned – is required to establish exactly how people feel.
Ironically, Prof. Lunn said the very success of vaccines in the past has served to dampen the sense of risk many feel from diseases, resulting in a generation who have never had to engage consciously with the vaccines.
‘It’s almost as if, as a race, we have forgotten about the huge strides that vaccinations have made. There were diseases that simply killed us that don’t exist anymore – and they killed us in large numbers,’ he said.
‘The modern generation either doesn’t know this or hasn’t absorbed this, so there’s a scepticism about vaccines as a kind of unnatural intervention and that is understandable because people don’t have at their fingertips, that knowledge.’ He also addressed fears about the speed at which vaccines have been developed. ‘Usually, when a technology of any description is rushed through, it doesn’t work as well. That’s a perfectly reasonable rule of thumb,’ he said.
‘But in this case, it isn’t true. It’s actually the bureaucratic process that takes so long – not the science – and, in this case, it’s the bureaucratic process that has been sped up.
‘The science, if anything, is probably likely to be better than it normally is even though it’s been sped up and that’s a message we need to get across to people who are understandably hesitant.’
DUBLINER HAS TOP JOB APPROVING EUROPE’S VACCINES
IF YOU haven’t heard much about Dubliner Emer Cooke before, that’s about to change.
As the new head of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the 1985 Trinity graduate is responsible for overseeing the approval – or otherwise – of the first Covid vaccines for use in Europe.
Ms Cooke was formerly head of regulation of medicines and other health technologies with the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva before she took the EMA job and its salary of close to €200,000.
With a budget of more than €340m, the EMA has just moved to Amsterdam from its former London base because of Brexit.
As a result of disruption caused by the move, the Agency lost more than 150 staff and suspended many of its processes just as Covid was about to rear its head.
‘The challenges of the move and the associated staff losses had made it necessary to put some activities on hold,’ the EMA’s 2019 annual report reads.
‘EMA was only able to reinstate some of these activities,’ the report continues.
‘Important areas of the Agency’s work, such as working parties and guideline development, remained largely suspended throughout the year, creating a significant impact on the European medicines regulatory network overall.’
Now the Agency’s response to Covid will shape its future for generations and make a household name of Ms Cooke.
With homes in Dublin’s Blackrock and London, Ms Cooke is married to former PWC executive and wealth adviser Peter Dempsey – a renowned whistleblower who exposed legal wrongdoing at a London firm.
The couple are parents to twins.
With so many unknowns, our return to ‘normal’ is a long way off
WILL THE VACCINES BE APPROVED? THIS is up to the European Medicines Agency which will examine the trial data compiled to date. It’s likely – barring any drastic problems – that emergency use approval will be granted soon. This will allow vaccine campaigns to begin rolling out throughout Europe. But any distribution will be strictly monitored and emergency approval can be withdrawn if issues emerge as data from widespread use is accumulated. A drug can only achieve full approval after significant safety data has accumulated.
WILL THE VACCINES PREVENT INFECTION – OR JUST SYMPTOMS? THIS will not be clear for some time to come – meaning measures such as social distancing and lockdowns will still be necessary for some time to prevent asymptomatic transmission to vulnerable people.
DOES EFFICACY DEPEND ON AGE OR HEALTH? AGAIN this won’t become clear for some time. Already there are signs that some vaccines work better in younger people. It’s possible that elderly people, for instance, and those with weaker immune systems might need different doses and treatments – something that would complicate delivery and planning.
HOW LONG DOES IMMUNITY LAST? THIS is the big one. And the answer is no one knows. Immunity could last a few months or far longer. But we cannot know if immunity lasts for years until such time has elapsed. If immunity lasts for no more than six months or a year, continuous vaccines might need to be administered in a similar fashion to the flu vaccine.
WHEN WILL LIFE GO BACK TO NORMAL? FOR complete normality to return, vaccines have to be successful – and rolled out around the globe to completely eradicate the disease. This cannot be achieved in a year, although in Europe it is likely – subject to approval – that frontline workers and those most in need will be receiving jabs before the spring of 2021 is over. Unfortunately, given all the unknowns, it is unlikely that we will all have been successfully immunised by this time next year. There’s still some way to go yet, even if the vaccines nearing approval proceed without a hitch. It may be time to think more in terms of a ‘new normal’ rather than await the return of life as we knew it a year ago.
